Agrometeorological forecast for November

During the first half of November, agrometeorological conditions will be determined by dry weather and temperatures above the climatic norms. Until the middle of the month, the limiting factor for the development of the sown autumn crops will continue to be the deficit of soil moisture. In parts of the southern and southeastern regions (Karnobat agrometeorological station), the resulting drought will cast doubt on the survival of some of the germinated and emerged crops.

At the end of October, the level of soil moisture reserves in the 50 and 100 cm layer was unusually low, in many places in Southern Bulgaria – below 40% of field capacity (agrometeorological stations: Plovdiv, Pazardzhik, Sliven). In parts of the southeastern regions (Karnobat agrometeorological station) there was no moisture in the entire one-metre soil layer.

At the beginning of November, the drought will limit the implementation of seasonal soil tillage and, in some of the field areas, will delay the sowing of winter cereal crops beyond the agrotechnical deadlines.

During the second half of November, the agrometeorological conditions will undergo a change. From the middle of the second to the middle of the third ten-day period, precipitation is forecast, as well as an improvement in soil moisture reserves in the upper layers and in the conditions for the progress of the initial stages of vegetation of the sown autumn crops. During this period, the development of winter cereal crops will take place at average daily temperatures close to the climatic norms for the second half of the month.

At the end of November, wheat and barley will be in the phases of emergence and formation of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd leaf. For a small part of the crops in certain places in the Danube plain regions (agrometeorological stations: Bazovets, Novachene, in the region of Ruse), where the local rainfall at the beginning of autumn ensured moisture for the initial vegetation of the winter cereal crops, the tillering phase will also be observed.

No critical minimum temperatures for the emerged autumn crops are forecast during the month. At the beginning of November, the inspection of the crops for the presence of pests – wheat leaf miner, cereal flies – must continue, and where their density exceeds the economic threshold of harmfulness (for cereal flies the EIL is 3–4 pcs/m², for the wheat leaf miner – over 3 larvae/m²), timely treatment should be carried out.

Favourable conditions for conducting autumn plant protection spraying in orchards to limit infections of scab, early brown rot, shot-hole disease, peach leaf curl and other overwintering pathogens will occur during the first half of November, and for planting fruit trees – during the third ten-day period.

Source: NIMH