Перспективи в селското стопанство за периода 2017 - 2026

In a July 2017 report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), a slowdown in the growth of food consumption over the next 10 years at the global level and the maintenance of lower food prices is noted. Will the eating habits of society change? The main sources of calories are expected to be vegetable oils, sugar, dairy products and fish.

Food, not energy

Global food prices are expected to remain relatively low over the next decade, as slower growth in demand is projected in a number of developing economies. Another limiting factor for low prices will be the reduced impact of the biofuels market, the two organizations OECD and FAO emphasize in their report. Demand for agricultural products intended for biofuel production will stagnate due to falling energy prices and the implementation of more moderate biofuel policies in many countries. Thus, agricultural products will once again fulfil their original role, namely to be used for food and not for energy. The agricultural commodities crisis of 2007/2008, which unfolded in parallel with the global financial crisis, was driven by a sharp increase in the prices of staple foods, and especially of oilseeds used for biofuels.

According to the forecasts of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the period 2017/2026, cereal stocks will amount to 230 million tonnes, which will lead to a limitation in the growth of world prices.

Over the next ten years, demand for most basic food products will increase moderately. Per capita cereal consumption should remain almost unchanged, except in less developed countries, where it will increase. The supply of additional calories and proteins is expected to be ensured by the production of vegetable oils, sugar and dairy products. According to the indicators in the report, demand for meat is also expected to decline.

By 2026, the aim is for developing countries to reach 2,450 kcal per person per day, while in developed countries this figure should reach 3,000 kcal per day. Food insecurity and malnutrition worldwide, especially with a growing population, will remain among the leading problems in the coming years, which will require international efforts to overcome them.

Cereal production is expected to increase by 12% by 2026, mainly due to higher yields. For example, 90% of the increase in maize production will be achieved through better yields, and only 10% will be due to the expansion of agricultural land. With regard to meat, demand is expected to grow steadily, but at the same time the production of milk and dairy products will increase compared to the previous decade, mainly in countries such as India and Pakistan.

Aquaculture will be one of the fastest growing sectors of agriculture in the world. According to FAO, the global yield of aquatic organisms (from capture and aquaculture) has been showing continuous progress and in 2002 reached 133 million tonnes. Over a period of 30 years, a twofold increase has been recorded in the total quantity of hydrobionts offered on the market, a significant part of which is due to the rapid development of aquaculture. According to FAO’s forecast, in 2020 half of the total production of hydrobionts obtained from capture and farming will come from aquaculture.

“The real prices of most agricultural commodities are expected to decline slightly over the next 10 years,” said José Ángel Gurría, Secretary-General of the OECD, during the meeting of the two organizations in Paris on 10 July. “As we have seen in the past, unexpected events can easily divert markets from global trends in food trade, which is why it is of paramount importance that governments direct their joint efforts towards ensuring stability in global food markets.”

South-East Asia

This year, the FAO report places particular emphasis on the economy and agriculture of South-East Asia. Economic growth in the region is enormous and the agriculture and fisheries sectors continue to expand in volume. The report finds that this broad-based growth has enabled the region to significantly reduce malnutrition in recent years. At the same time, the increasing export of palm oil has led to a reduction in natural resources and a search for alternative ways of sustainable development in the region. Thus, in the coming years, a slowdown in the growth of palm oil production (about 10%) is expected, compared to 70% in the previous decade.

Other highlights from the report:

– Large low-income groups will keep the growth in per capita meat demand to only 1% over the next ten years, compared with an increase of 6% in the previous decade.

– Per capita sugar demand is expected to grow faster, reaching 8.1% over the next ten years, compared with 5.6% in the previous decade.

– India will be the most populous country by 2026. With its high and still increasing per capita milk consumption, the country is expected to account for 42% of the increase in global milk production over the next decade.

– Biofuel production is expected to grow by 17% over the next ten years, compared with a 90% increase in the previous decade.

– Yield gains are expected to account for 85% of the increase in wheat production and 90% of the increase in maize production. In contrast, a 14% increase in soybean area is forecast, mainly in South America, accounting for about 60% of the global increase in production.

– Total fish production from aquaculture is expected to surpass production from capture fisheries in the middle of the forecast period.