Agrometeorological forecast for the end of the year

The unseasonably warm weather for the period during the second ten-day period of December, with maximum temperatures exceeding 16-17°C in many places in the lowland areas, led to a resumption of vegetative processes in the winter cereal crops. The above-normal December temperatures had a beneficial effect on the late-sown wheat stands and some of them reached the required temperature sum to enter the 3-leaf growth stage. In some locations in Northeastern Bulgaria, where temperatures of around 19-20°C (Razgrad, Dobrich, Varna) were recorded, the share of wheat stands in the tillering stage also increased. As a result of the high temperatures in the southern regions, in some early-flowering shrub and tree species (cornelian cherry, cherry) an undesirable bud swelling was induced.

At the beginning of the third ten-day period of December, temperatures were again above normal and the average daily values in most of the lowland areas were above the biological minimum required for the occurrence of delayed vegetation in the winter cereal crops.

After the unusually warm weather in the middle of the third ten-day period of December, the agrometeorological conditions will undergo a substantial change. The expected cooling at the end of the period will lead to a weakening and cessation of vegetative processes in the autumn-sown crops, and will prevent premature, undesirable development in some perennial plantations, which would result in a reduction of their winter hardiness.

In the lowland areas, conditions will allow the carrying out of soil tillage operations. The forecast precipitation during the third ten-day period of December will increase the level of soil moisture reserves in the 50 cm soil layer. At the end of autumn, in some locations in the southern regions – the agrometeorological stations Kyustendil, Chirpan and Sliven – the soil moisture reserves for wheat in the 100 cm layer are unsatisfactory, below 60% of field capacity.

Source: NIMH