Agrometeorological forecast for September 2018

At the beginning of September, the agrometeorological conditions will be determined by dry, warm and, in places in the lowland regions, hot weather. Until the middle of the first ten-day period, the conditions will be suitable for completing the sunflower harvest, gathering the earlier maize hybrids, carrying out deep ploughing, pre-sowing tillage and the sowing of winter oilseed rape. 

The forecast above-normal thermal conditions at the beginning of the month will accelerate the progression of the final stages of development of the late field crops. In medium-late maize hybrids, the wax and full maturity stages will be observed, while in the late hybrids – the milk stage and the transition from milk to wax maturity. In rice, the milk maturity stage will prevail, and in cotton – the opening of the bolls.

During the second half of the first and on most days of the second ten-day period, the agrometeorological conditions will be highly dynamic. Precipitation, a decrease in temperatures and an increased risk of development of pathogens causing rots are forecast – late brown rot (Monilia fructigena) on the fruits of autumn-winter fruit varieties, and grey mould (Botrytis cinerea) in the later wine grape varieties. This year, the rainy summer hindered the timely implementation of plant protection spraying in the vineyards. In some places, mass infections with downy mildew and powdery mildew compromised the grape yield.

In the second ten-day period of September, the late maize hybrids will also enter the wax and full maturity stages. During this period, the ripening stage will be widely observed in rice crops.

At the end of the second ten-day period, an increased probability of frost formation is forecast in the higher fields, and during the third ten-day period – also in some of the lowland regions, which requires the timely harvesting of vegetable crops susceptible to frost damage.

The expected precipitation in September, around and above the monthly norm, will provide moisture for the normal progression of the initial stages of vegetation of winter oilseed rape. At the end of the month, in rape sown within the optimal time window, during the first half of September, the emergence stage will be observed. In the emergence stage, serious damage to rape is caused by the cabbage stem flea beetle (adult individuals) and the larvae (false caterpillars) of the rape sawfly.

During the second part of the third ten-day period, no significant precipitation is forecast. In the last days of the month, an improvement in the conditions for carrying out pre-sowing tillage on the areas intended for sowing with winter cereal crops is expected. At the end of September, in the higher fields, the agrotechnical periods for sowing barley and wheat begin.

Source: NIMH