Agrometeorological forecast for the month of October

In October, agrometeorological conditions will be determined by temperatures and precipitation close to the climatic norms. During the second and the beginning of the third ten-day period, the agrometeorological conditions will be characterized by increased dynamics. The forecast precipitation will provide moisture for the normal progression of the initial stages of vegetation of the sown rapeseed and winter cereal crops.

In the first days of October, the forecast sunny and seasonally warm weather will accelerate the completion of the final development stages of late agricultural crops and will be a prerequisite for the synthesis of more sugars in the fruits of autumn varieties of fruit trees and late wine grape varieties.

A substantial temperature decrease and a significant change in the agrometeorological conditions are expected in the middle of the first ten-day period. The forecast precipitation during the first week of October, following the prolonged summer drought, will improve the water-physical condition of the soil in the upper layers. The rainfall at the beginning of autumn was unevenly distributed over the territory of the country. In some places in Northern Bulgaria it exceeded 40–50 l/m² (Vidin – 44 l/m², Vratsa – 46 l/m², Lovech – 70 l/m², Pleven – 44 l/m², Svishtov – 45 l/m², Razgrad – 52 l/m², Dobrich – 42 l/m²). In most of Southern Bulgaria the precipitation was insignificant – below 10 l/m². In the southern regions the dry and compacted soil hindered the implementation of seasonal soil tillage operations.

During the first ten-day period of October, an improvement is expected in the conditions for carrying out pre-sowing tillage and the sowing of winter cereal crops. During this period is the agrotechnical window for wheat sowing in Northern Bulgaria; from 15 to 25 October – for Southern Bulgaria; and during the third ten-day period – for the areas along the Black Sea coast. During the second and the beginning of the third ten-day period, the agrometeorological conditions will be characterized by increased dynamics. The forecast precipitation will provide moisture for the normal progression of the initial stages of vegetation of the sown rapeseed and winter cereal crops.

During the last week of the month, the development of autumn crops will proceed at a slower rate. At the end of October, in wheat and barley sown in the second half of the month, the predominant growth stage will be emergence. In the crops sown in the first ten-day period of October, the third leaf stage will be observed on a mass scale. The earliest sown winter cereal crops, during the third ten-day period of September, will reach the beginning of tillering by the end of October. In the September-sown winter rapeseed crops (in the regions of Chirpan, Yambol, Sliven, Stara Zagora), the rosette formation stage will be observed.

Source: NIMH-BAS